Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Chicago Fire and 2.18 for Philadelphia Union, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Philadelphia Union the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Philadelphia Union win

49.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.68 – 2.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Chicago Fire home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Philadelphia Union away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Philadelphia Union to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 30% / 21% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Chicago Fire and 2.18 for Philadelphia Union, a combined 3.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Chicago Fire win30%

Draw21%

Philadelphia Union win49%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

1–28.4%
1–17.8%
2–27.1%
2–16.5%
1–36.1%

Recent form

Chicago Fire

2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · H vs New York City FC · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-07T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Charlotte · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Nashville SC · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · H vs New England Revolution · 1-2 (L)

Philadelphia Union

2026-10-10T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Salt Lake · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Orlando City SC · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-20T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Kansas City · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-14T01:00:00.000Z · A vs San Diego · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-09T23:45:00.000Z · H vs FC Cincinnati · 5-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	28	15	6	7	31	51
2	St. Louis City	28	14	8	6	16	50
3	FC Dallas	28	13	8	7	7	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	28	13	7	8	10	46
5	Houston Dynamo	28	13	6	9	2	45
6	Los Angeles FC	29	11	9	9	13	42
7	Seattle Sounders	28	11	8	9	3	41
8	Colorado Rapids	28	11	4	13	0	37
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	29	9	9	11	-11	36
10	Portland Timbers	28	9	6	13	-3	33
11	Real Salt Lake	28	9	5	14	-5	32
12	San Diego	28	8	8	12	-3	32
13	Austin	28	7	10	11	-15	31
14	Minnesota United FC	28	7	9	12	-9	30
15	Sporting Kansas City	28	6	4	18	-33	22
1	Nashville SC	28	19	6	3	37	63
2	Inter Miami	28	13	10	5	18	49
3	Chicago Fire	28	14	6	8	11	48
4	New England Revolution	28	14	4	10	6	46
5	Charlotte	28	13	7	8	10	46
6	Philadelphia Union	28	12	6	10	11	42
7	Orlando City SC	28	11	4	13	-15	37
8	New York Red Bulls	28	10	6	12	-14	36
9	FC Cincinnati	27	9	9	9	-7	36
10	New York City FC	28	8	9	11	4	33
11	Toronto FC	28	7	11	10	-11	32
12	DC United	27	6	12	9	-12	30
13	Columbus Crew	28	8	5	15	-5	29
14	Atlanta United FC	28	7	6	15	-15	27
15	CF Montreal	28	6	6	16	-21	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Philadelphia Union win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.