USA · Major League Soccer · Matchweek 1922:00

2 – 1

Sunday, 16 August 2026

Soldier Field · Referee Chris Penso, USA · Analysis updated 15:03 UTC

Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.41 expected goals for Chicago Fire and 1.24 for Portland Timbers, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Chicago Fire the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Chicago Fire win

63.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

2.41 – 1.24

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Chicago Fire home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Portland Timbers away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Chicago Fire win63%

Draw19%

Portland Timbers win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

2–19.4%
1–17.8%
2–07.5%
3–17.5%
1–06.3%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.3%), compared with our model probability.

No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Goals	Under 3.5	1.95	48.4%	50.6%	1.98	+2.2
Both teams to score	No	2.75	33.7%	35.4%	2.82	+1.7
Match result	Home	1.50	62.1%	63.2%	1.58	+1.1
Match result	Away	5.30	17.6%	18.3%	5.46	+0.7
Goals	Under 2.5	3.25	29.0%	29.5%	3.39	+0.5
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.14	81.4%	81.7%	1.22	+0.3
Double chance	Home/Away	1.14	81.4%	81.5%	1.23	+0.1
Double chance	Draw/Away	2.50	37.1%	36.8%	2.72	-0.3
Goals	Over 2.5	1.33	71.0%	70.5%	1.42	-0.5
Both teams to score	Yes	1.40	66.3%	64.6%	1.55	-1.7
Match result	Draw	4.60	20.3%	18.5%	5.41	-1.8
Goals	Over 3.5	1.83	51.6%	49.4%	2.02	-2.2

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

Chicago Fire

2026-10-15T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Philadelphia Union · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · H vs New York City FC · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-07T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver Whitecaps · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-26T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Charlotte · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Nashville SC · 0-3 (L)

Portland Timbers

2026-10-11T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Kansas City · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z · A vs San Jose Earthquakes · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T02:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlanta United FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T00:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Dallas · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-10T02:30:00.000Z · H vs St. Louis City · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-02-14T18:00:00.000Z · Chicago Fire 3-4 Portland Timbers (Friendlies Clubs)
2025-02-08T22:30:00.000Z · Chicago Fire 0-0 Portland Timbers (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-02-17T20:00:00.000Z · Chicago Fire 2-1 Portland Timbers (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-06-22T02:30:00.000Z · Chicago Fire 2-1 Portland Timbers (Major League Soccer)
2019-08-15T03:00:00.000Z · Chicago Fire 2-3 Portland Timbers (Major League Soccer)
2018-03-31T22:00:00.000Z · Chicago Fire 2-2 Portland Timbers (Major League Soccer)
2017-07-06T02:30:00.000Z · Chicago Fire 2-2 Portland Timbers (Major League Soccer)
2016-05-29T00:30:00.000Z · Chicago Fire 1-1 Portland Timbers (Major League Soccer)
2015-08-08T03:00:00.000Z · Chicago Fire 0-1 Portland Timbers (Major League Soccer)
2014-03-16T19:00:00.000Z · Chicago Fire 1-1 Portland Timbers (Major League Soccer)

Major League Soccer table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	29	15	7	7	31	52
2	St. Louis City	29	14	9	6	16	51
3	FC Dallas	29	14	8	7	8	50
4	San Jose Earthquakes	29	13	8	8	10	47
5	Houston Dynamo	29	13	7	9	2	46
6	Los Angeles FC	30	12	9	9	15	45
7	Seattle Sounders	29	11	8	10	2	41
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	30	10	9	11	-9	39
9	Colorado Rapids	29	11	5	13	0	38
10	Portland Timbers	29	9	6	14	-5	33
11	Real Salt Lake	29	9	6	14	-5	33
12	San Diego	29	8	9	12	-3	33
13	Minnesota United FC	29	7	10	12	-9	31
14	Austin	29	7	10	12	-17	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	29	6	4	19	-37	22
1	Nashville SC	29	20	6	3	41	66
2	Inter Miami	29	14	10	5	20	52
3	New England Revolution	29	15	4	10	7	49
4	Chicago Fire	29	14	6	9	9	48
5	Charlotte	29	13	7	9	8	46
6	Philadelphia Union	29	13	6	10	13	45
7	Orlando City SC	29	11	5	13	-15	38
8	New York Red Bulls	29	10	6	13	-15	36
9	FC Cincinnati	28	9	9	10	-8	36
10	New York City FC	29	8	9	12	2	33
11	Toronto FC	29	7	12	10	-11	33
12	DC United	28	7	12	9	-11	33
13	Columbus Crew	29	9	5	15	-3	32
14	Atlanta United FC	29	8	6	15	-12	30
15	CF Montreal	29	6	6	17	-24	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Chicago Fire win, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.