Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium · Referee Iryna Petrunok, · Analysis updated 08:59 UTC
Chicago Red Stars W vs Bay FC W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.87 expected goals for Chicago Red Stars W and 1.59 for Bay FC W, a combined total of 2.46. That distribution gives Bay FC W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bay FC W win
54.1% probability
Expected goals
0.87 – 1.59
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chicago Red Stars W home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bay FC W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bay FC W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 21% / 25% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.87 goals for Chicago Red Stars W and 1.59 for Bay FC W, a combined 2.46 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.5%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–210.7%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.5%
Recent form
Chicago Red Stars W
- 2026-08-30T00:55:00.000Z · A vs Denver Summit W · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Louisville W · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Houston Dash W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-15T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Seattle Reign FC W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Bay FC W · 0-0 (D)
Bay FC W
- 2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Orlando Pride W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T23:05:00.000Z · H vs Racing Louisville W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Denver Summit W · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Seattle Reign FC W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Kansas City W · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NWSL Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC W | 28 | 16 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 55 |
| 2 | San Diego Wave W | 28 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 54 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit W | 28 | 16 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 52 |
| 4 | Angel City W | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 49 |
| 5 | Kansas City W | 28 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 47 |
| 6 | Utah Royals W | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 47 |
| 7 | Portland Thorns W | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 47 |
| 8 | Seattle Reign FC W | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 44 |
| 9 | North Carolina Courage W | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 42 |
| 10 | Denver Summit W | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 41 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride W | 28 | 11 | 3 | 14 | -6 | 36 |
| 12 | Houston Dash W | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | -4 | 33 |
| 13 | Boston Legacy W | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 32 |
| 14 | Bay FC W | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | -16 | 27 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville W | 29 | 7 | 3 | 19 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Chicago Red Stars W | 29 | 5 | 2 | 22 | -52 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bay FC W win, at 54.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.