· Analysis updated 16:11 UTC
Chichester City vs Berkhamsted Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Chichester City and 1.30 for Berkhamsted, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Chichester City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chichester City win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chichester City home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Berkhamsted away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chichester City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 24% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Chichester City and 1.30 for Berkhamsted, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–07.2%
Recent form
Chichester City
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Hanworth Villa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Thame United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Chertsey Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs SE Dons · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uxbridge · 0-5 (L)
Berkhamsted
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Redditch United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sholing · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chatham Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hanworth Villa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hendon · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Southern South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poole Town | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Uxbridge | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 26 |
| 3 | Bath City | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 26 |
| 4 | Hanworth Villa | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 24 |
| 5 | Plymouth Parkway | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 23 |
| 6 | Chichester City | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 22 |
| 7 | Taunton Town | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | Chertsey Town | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | Frome Town | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 10 | Wimborne Town | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 11 | Gosport Borough | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 12 | Berkhamsted | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 16 |
| 13 | Bracknell Town | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | Yate Town | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 13 |
| 15 | Evesham United | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Sholing | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 17 | Basingstoke Town | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -6 | 12 |
| 18 | Hanwell Town | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 19 | Malvern Town | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 11 |
| 20 | Gloucester City | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 21 | Havant & Wville | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
| 22 | Chippenham Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chichester City win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.