· Analysis updated 09:37 UTC
Chichester City vs SE Dons Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Chichester City and 1.61 for SE Dons, a combined total of 3.19. That distribution gives SE Dons the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
62.3% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.61
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chichester City home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates SE Dons to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 38% / 23% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Chichester City and 1.61 for SE Dons, a combined 3.19 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.3%
- 2–26.7%
- 0–16.6%
Recent form
Chichester City
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gosport Borough · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Berkhamsted · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bracknell Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sholing · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Plymouth Parkway · 3-1 (W)
SE Dons
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Weymouth · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chichester City · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Erith Town · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.