Oaklands Park · Analysis updated 09:03 UTC
Chichester City vs Whitstable Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Chichester City and 3.08 for Whitstable Town, a combined total of 4.23. That distribution gives Whitstable Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Whitstable Town win
75.6% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 3.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chichester City home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Whitstable Town away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Whitstable Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 11% / 14% / 76% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Chichester City and 3.08 for Whitstable Town, a combined 4.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
24%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
89%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–38.2%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–37.1%
- 0–26.9%
- 1–46.3%
Recent form
Chichester City
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gosport Borough · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Berkhamsted · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bracknell Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Sholing · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Plymouth Parkway · 3-1 (W)
Whitstable Town
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Egham Town · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hanworth Villa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs AFC Portchester · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Erith & Belvedere · 4-1 (W)
- 2025-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wealdstone · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Whitstable Town win, at 75.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.