Chievo vs Vogherese Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.16 expected goals for Chievo and 1.07 for Vogherese, a combined total of 4.23. That distribution gives Chievo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Chievo win

78.3% probability

High confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

3.16 – 1.07

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Chievo home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vogherese away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chievo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 13% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.16 goals for Chievo and 1.07 for Vogherese, a combined 4.23 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Chievo win78%

Draw13%

Vogherese win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

88%

Double chance X2

22%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals79%

Over 3.5 goals61%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

3–18.2%
2–17.8%
3–07.7%
2–07.3%
4–16.5%

Recent form

Chievo

2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Milan II · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Virtus Verona · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brusaporto · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Tritium · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nibbiano & Valtidone · 0-2 (L)

Vogherese

2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Milan II · 1-10 (L)
2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Caldiero Terme · 0-6 (L)
2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo · 1-6 (L)
2026-04-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs USD Casatese · 0-4 (L)
2026-04-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chievo · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie D - Girone B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nibbiano & Valtidone	9	8	0	1	10	24
2	Chievo	9	6	1	2	11	19
3	Piacenza	8	4	3	1	8	15
4	Caldiero Terme	9	4	3	2	3	15
5	Leon	9	4	3	2	2	15
6	Villa Valle	9	3	5	1	4	14
7	Milan II	7	4	1	2	1	13
8	Real Calepina	9	3	3	3	0	12
9	Virtus Verona	9	3	3	3	-1	12
10	Pavonese	8	3	2	3	-3	11
11	Pro Palazzolo	9	3	2	4	-4	11
12	Scanzorosciate	9	2	4	3	-2	10
13	Virtus Ciserano Bergamo	9	2	3	4	-2	9
14	Brusaporto	9	3	0	6	-5	9
15	Club Milano	9	2	2	5	-3	8
16	Rovato Vertovese	9	1	4	4	-4	7
17	Fiorenzuola	9	1	3	5	-6	6
18	Tritium	9	1	2	6	-9	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Chievo win, at 78.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.

A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.