· Analysis updated 14:33 UTC
Chile W vs Argentina W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for Chile W and 1.52 for Argentina W, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Argentina W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Argentina W win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.52
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chile W home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Argentina W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Argentina W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 26% / 26% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for Chile W and 1.52 for Argentina W, a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–112.0%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–08.0%
Recent form
Chile W
- 2026-06-05T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Ecuador W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Uruguay W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-15T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Colombia W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentina W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-07T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Paraguay W · 1-0 (W)
Argentina W
- 2026-06-09T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Ecuador W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-05T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Peru W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-18T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Colombia W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-14T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Venezuela W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Chile W · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CONMEBOL Nations League Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia W | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 20 |
| 2 | Argentina W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Venezuela W | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 12 |
| 4 | Ecuador W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Peru W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 6 | Paraguay W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | Chile W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Uruguay W | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 9 | Bolivia W | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -38 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Argentina W win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.