· Analysis updated 22:51 UTC
China PR U17 vs Fiji U17 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.88 expected goals for China PR U17 and 0.93 for Fiji U17, a combined total of 3.81. That distribution gives China PR U17 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
China PR U17 win
77.2% probability
Expected goals
2.88 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
China PR U17 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates China PR U17 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 14% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.88 goals for China PR U17 and 0.93 for Fiji U17, a combined 3.81 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 57%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.2%
- 3–08.8%
- 2–18.5%
- 3–18.2%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
China PR U17
- 2026-07-11T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Nigeria U17 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-08T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Tanzania U17 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-05T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Australia U17 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Japan U17 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Australia U17 · 2-0 (W)
Fiji U17
- 2025-11-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Argentina U17 · 0-7 (L)
- 2025-11-06T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Belgium U17 · 0-7 (L)
- 2025-11-03T15:45:00.000Z · A vs Tunisia U17 · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
World Cup - U17 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is China PR U17 win, at 77.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.