· Referee S. Al Hammadi · Analysis updated 15:31 UTC
China PR U17 vs Japan U17 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for China PR U17 and 1.60 for Japan U17, a combined total of 6.10. That distribution gives China PR U17 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
China PR U17 win
83.2% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
China PR U17 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates China PR U17 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 83% / 9% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for China PR U17 and 1.60 for Japan U17, a combined 6.10 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 90% and both teams to score at 76%, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
17%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–16.1%
- 5–15.5%
- 3–15.5%
- 4–24.9%
- 5–24.4%
Recent form
China PR U17
- 2026-07-11T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Nigeria U17 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-08T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Tanzania U17 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-05T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Australia U17 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Japan U17 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Australia U17 · 2-0 (W)
Japan U17
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is China PR U17 win, at 83.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.