· Analysis updated 11:01 UTC
China PR U17 vs Nigeria U17 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for China PR U17 and 1.50 for Nigeria U17, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives China PR U17 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
China PR U17 win
59.4% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
China PR U17 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates China PR U17 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 19% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for China PR U17 and 1.50 for Nigeria U17, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 71%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 3–17.2%
- 1–16.9%
- 2–26.4%
- 2–05.7%
Recent form
China PR U17
- 2026-07-11T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Nigeria U17 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-08T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Tanzania U17 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-05T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Australia U17 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Japan U17 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Australia U17 · 2-0 (W)
Nigeria U17
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is China PR U17 win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.