· Referee A. Etong · Analysis updated 23:48 UTC
China PR U17 W vs Samoa U17 W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for China PR U17 W and 1.54 for Samoa U17 W, a combined total of 6.04. That distribution gives China PR U17 W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 9%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
China PR U17 W win
84.0% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 1.54
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
China PR U17 W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates China PR U17 W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 84%, against 84% / 9% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for China PR U17 W and 1.54 for Samoa U17 W, a combined 6.04 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 90% and both teams to score at 75%, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
16%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–16.3%
- 5–15.6%
- 3–15.6%
- 4–24.8%
- 5–24.3%
Recent form
China PR U17 W
- 2026-10-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Samoa U17 W · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-10-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kenya U17 W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-14T11:30:00.000Z · H vs North Korea U17 W · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-05-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs India U17 W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Thailand U17 W · 6-0 (W)
Samoa U17 W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
World Cup - U17 - Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morocco U17 W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | Germany U17 W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Argentina U17 W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 4 | New Zealand U17 W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | North Korea U17 W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| 2 | Poland U17 W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Nigeria U17 W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 4 | Puerto Rico W U17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
| 1 | Brazil U17 W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | Norway U17 W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Ghana U17 W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 4 | Canada W U17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Japan U17 W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | France U17 W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Venezuela U17 W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 4 | Zambia U17 W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 1 | United States W U17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 3 |
| 2 | China PR U17 W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Kenya U17 W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 4 | Samoa U17 W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -17 | 0 |
| 1 | Spain U17 W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Australia U17 W | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Chile U17 W | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Mexico U17 W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is China PR U17 W win, at 84.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.
A 84% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.