Longxing Football Stadium · Referee A. Nadjafaliev · Analysis updated 14:42 UTC
China vs Palestine Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for China and 1.33 for Palestine, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Palestine the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.7% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
China home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Palestine away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Palestine to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 32% / 27% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for China and 1.33 for Palestine, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–09.7%
- 1–28.5%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
China
- 2026-09-27T11:35:00.000Z · H vs New Zealand · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-24T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Maldives · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-06-09T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Thailand · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Singapore · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-31T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Cameroon · 0-2 (L)
Palestine
- 2026-10-02T11:35:00.000Z · A vs China · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Konyaspor · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-28T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tajikistan · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-24T09:30:00.000Z · H vs New Zealand · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kyrgyzstan · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.