Hangzhou Dragon Stadium · Referee K. Hyung-Jin · Analysis updated 16:03 UTC
China vs Thailand Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for China and 1.75 for Thailand, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives China the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.6% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
China home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Thailand away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–15.5%
Recent form
China
- 2026-09-27T11:35:00.000Z · H vs New Zealand · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-24T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Maldives · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-06-09T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Thailand · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Singapore · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-03-31T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Cameroon · 0-2 (L)
Thailand
- 2026-08-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vietnam · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vietnam · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Singapore · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Singapore · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Myanmar · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-09T11:35:00.000Z · China 0-0 Thailand (Friendlies)
- 2024-06-06T12:00:00.000Z · China 1-1 Thailand (World Cup - Qualification Asia)
- 2023-11-16T12:30:00.000Z · China 2-1 Thailand (World Cup - Qualification Asia)
- 2019-03-21T12:00:00.000Z · China 0-1 Thailand (China Cup)
- 2019-01-20T14:00:00.000Z · China 2-1 Thailand (Asian Cup)
- 2018-06-02T11:30:00.000Z · China 2-0 Thailand (Friendlies)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.