Tazi Lake Football Training Centre · Analysis updated 13:16 UTC
China W vs Russia W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for China W and 1.10 for Russia W, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives China W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
China W win
52.8% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
China W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Russia W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates China W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 24% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for China W and 1.10 for Russia W, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–08.8%
- 0–16.3%
Recent form
China W
- 2026-10-02T06:00:00.000Z · H vs South Korea W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Korea DPR W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Vietnam W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Philippines W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Uzbekistan W · 1-1 (D)
Russia W
- 2026-06-07T11:00:00.000Z · A vs China W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-03T11:35:00.000Z · A vs China W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Russia U19 W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-14T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Russia U19 W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ghana W · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is China W win, at 52.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.