· Analysis updated 15:08 UTC
China W vs Vietnam W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.03 expected goals for China W and 0.88 for Vietnam W, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives China W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
China W win
80.1% probability
Expected goals
3.03 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
China W home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vietnam W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates China W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 12% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.03 goals for China W and 0.88 for Vietnam W, a combined 3.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–09.3%
- 2–09.3%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–18.1%
- 4–07.1%
Recent form
China W
- 2026-10-02T06:00:00.000Z · H vs South Korea W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Korea DPR W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Vietnam W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Philippines W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Uzbekistan W · 1-1 (D)
Vietnam W
- 2026-09-21T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Thailand W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Japan W · 0-8 (L)
- 2026-09-14T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Chinese Taipei W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T06:00:00.000Z · A vs China W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-10T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Japan W · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is China W win, at 80.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.