Stadionul Eugen Popescu · Referee M. Birsan · Analysis updated 01:47 UTC
Chindia Targoviste vs Farul Constanta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Chindia Targoviste and 1.30 for Farul Constanta, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Chindia Targoviste the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chindia Targoviste win
52.7% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chindia Targoviste home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Farul Constanta away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.6%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–26.4%
Recent form
Chindia Targoviste
- 2026-10-25T09:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM Satu Mare · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs ASA Targu Mures · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Concordia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Unirea Slobozia · 1-0 (W)
Farul Constanta
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oţelul · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Craiova · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Popești-Leordeni · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Bucuresti · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-31T17:30:00.000Z · Chindia Targoviste 1-1 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2026-05-23T14:30:00.000Z · Chindia Targoviste 3-3 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2022-11-12T15:30:00.000Z · Chindia Targoviste 1-1 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2022-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · Chindia Targoviste 0-0 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2022-07-02T08:00:00.000Z · Chindia Targoviste 3-2 Farul Constanta (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-02-05T14:00:00.000Z · Chindia Targoviste 1-0 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2021-09-18T11:30:00.000Z · Chindia Targoviste 2-0 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2021-06-30T00:00:00.000Z · Chindia Targoviste 2-1 Farul Constanta (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-02-10T12:30:00.000Z · Chindia Targoviste 3-0 Farul Constanta (Cupa României)
- 2019-03-30T12:30:00.000Z · Chindia Targoviste 0-1 Farul Constanta (Liga II)
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 30 |
| 2 | Rapid | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 27 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 26 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 23 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | FCSB | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 21 |
| 7 | Farul Constanta | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Uta Arad | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 9 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | FC Botosani | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 12 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -16 | 8 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -17 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chindia Targoviste win, at 52.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.