· Analysis updated 13:59 UTC
Chinese Taipei U17 vs Hong Kong U17 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Chinese Taipei U17 and 1.69 for Hong Kong U17, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Hong Kong U17 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Hong Kong U17 win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.69
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chinese Taipei U17 home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Hong Kong U17 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hong Kong U17 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 28% / 24% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Chinese Taipei U17 and 1.69 for Hong Kong U17, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–19.1%
- 0–27.7%
- 2–16.9%
Recent form
Chinese Taipei U17
- 2025-11-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Palestine U17 · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-11-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs India U17 · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-11-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs IR Iran U17 · 0-5 (L)
- 2025-11-22T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lebanon U17 · 0-0 (D)
- 2024-10-27T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Palestine U17 · 0-2 (L)
Hong Kong U17
- 2025-11-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Singapore U17 · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-11-28T12:00:00.000Z · H vs N. Mariana Islands U17 · 4-0 (W)
- 2025-11-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vietnam U17 · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-11-24T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Malaysia U17 · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-11-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Macau U17 · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hong Kong U17 win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.