· Analysis updated 08:18 UTC
Chippenham Town vs Havant & Wville Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Chippenham Town and 1.56 for Havant & Wville, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Chippenham Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chippenham Town home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chippenham Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 23% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Chippenham Town and 1.56 for Havant & Wville, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Chippenham Town
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Hanworth Villa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Poole Town · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Frome Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chertsey Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cray Wanderers · 0-3 (L)
Havant & Wville
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bath City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hanworth Villa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Basingstoke Town · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wimborne Town · 3-6 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hanwell Town · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2024-01-27T15:00:00.000Z · Chippenham Town 1-0 Havant & Wville (National League - South)
- 2023-08-12T14:00:00.000Z · Chippenham Town 4-2 Havant & Wville (National League - South)
- 2023-04-15T14:00:00.000Z · Chippenham Town 1-1 Havant & Wville (National League - South)
- 2022-11-15T19:45:00.000Z · Chippenham Town 0-3 Havant & Wville (National League - South)
- 2022-05-07T14:00:00.000Z · Chippenham Town 2-0 Havant & Wville (National League - South)
- 2021-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · Chippenham Town 1-0 Havant & Wville (National League - South)
- 2020-01-25T15:00:00.000Z · Chippenham Town 0-0 Havant & Wville (National League - South)
- 2019-12-07T15:00:00.000Z · Chippenham Town 1-2 Havant & Wville (National League - South)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.