Chisola vs Bra Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Chisola and 0.93 for Bra, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Chisola the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.08 – 0.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Chisola home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bra away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chisola to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 31% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Chisola and 0.93 for Bra, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Chisola win39%

Draw31%

Bra win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals59%

Over 2.5 goals32%

Over 3.5 goals14%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–014.5%
0–013.5%
1–113.5%
0–112.5%
2–07.8%

Recent form

Chisola

2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Celle Varazze · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Borgosesia · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ligorna · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Biellese · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanremese · 1-0 (W)

Bra

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Saluzzo · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Celle Varazze · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanremese · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Borgosesia · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Biellese · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie D - Girone A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alessandria	6	5	0	1	4	15
2	Biellese	6	4	2	0	7	14
3	Derthona	6	3	2	1	1	11
4	Ligorna	6	3	1	2	1	10
5	Asti	6	3	1	2	1	10
6	Gozzano	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	Saluzzo	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Millesimo	6	3	0	3	2	9
9	Chisola	6	2	2	2	2	8
10	Imperia	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Lascaris	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Sanremese	6	2	2	2	2	8
13	Fezzanese	6	2	1	3	0	7
14	Sestri Levante	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Borgosesia	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Bra	6	1	2	3	-3	5
17	Valenzana	6	1	1	4	-3	4
18	Celle Varazze	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.