Mestsky Stadion Chlumec · Analysis updated 16:00 UTC
Chlumec nad Cidlinou vs Přepeře Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Chlumec nad Cidlinou and 1.76 for Přepeře, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Přepeře the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Přepeře win
45.9% probability
Expected goals
1.41 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Přepeře to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 31% / 23% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.41 goals for Chlumec nad Cidlinou and 1.76 for Přepeře, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 46% with low confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–17.4%
- 2–17.4%
- 0–26.5%
Recent form
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
Přepeře
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vysoké Mýto | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 30 |
| 2 | Přepeře | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 27 |
| 3 | Kosmonosy | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 25 |
| 4 | Trutnov | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 25 |
| 5 | Turnov | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 23 |
| 6 | Ústí nad Orlicí | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 21 |
| 7 | Chlumec nad Cidlinou | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 8 | Spartak Police n/Metují | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Kolín | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Dvůr Králové | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 | Slavia Hradec Králové | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Hlinsko | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 13 |
| 13 | Vykan | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Svitavy | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 5 |
| 15 | Letohrad | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -25 | 2 |
| 16 | Chrudim II | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -35 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Přepeře win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.