Stadion Miejski Chojniczanka 1930 · Analysis updated 06:19 UTC
Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Olimpia Grudziądz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for Chojniczanka Chojnice and 1.40 for Olimpia Grudziądz, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Chojniczanka Chojnice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Chojniczanka Chojnice win
46.4% probability
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chojniczanka Chojnice home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Olimpia Grudziądz away threat
Scored in 8 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chojniczanka Chojnice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 23% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.77 goals for Chojniczanka Chojnice and 1.40 for Olimpia Grudziądz, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–07.4%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–06.6%
Recent form
Chojniczanka Chojnice
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Hutnik Kraków · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Grudziądz · 3-1 (W)
Olimpia Grudziądz
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Chojniczanka Chojnice · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sokół Kleczew · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Śląsk Wrocław II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Zabrze II · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
II Liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Znicz Pruszków | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 32 |
| 2 | Tychy 71 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 27 |
| 3 | Górnik Łęczna | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 22 |
| 5 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| 8 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 10 | Hutnik Kraków | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 11 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 12 | Avia Świdnik | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 17 |
| 13 | Legia Warszawa II | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 16 |
| 14 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 15 | Sokół Kleczew | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -11 | 12 |
| 16 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Świt Skolwin | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 9 |
| 18 | Resovia Rzeszów | 13 | 0 | 6 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Chojniczanka Chojnice win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.