Stadion Miejski Chojniczanka 1930 · Analysis updated 14:25 UTC
Chojniczanka Chojnice vs Znicz Pruszków Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Chojniczanka Chojnice and 1.95 for Znicz Pruszków, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Znicz Pruszków the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Znicz Pruszków win
49.7% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chojniczanka Chojnice home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Znicz Pruszków away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 1–29.3%
- 2–16.8%
- 0–16.6%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Chojniczanka Chojnice
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Hutnik Kraków · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Podhale Nowy Targ · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Górnik Łęczna · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia Grudziądz · 3-1 (W)
Znicz Pruszków
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Avia Świdnik · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Zawisza Bydgoszcz · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Stal Stalowa Wola · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lechia Zielona Góra · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-09T15:00:00.000Z · Chojniczanka Chojnice 1-4 Znicz Pruszków (II Liga - East)
- 2026-07-10T15:00:00.000Z · Chojniczanka Chojnice 2-1 Znicz Pruszków (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-01-31T15:15:00.000Z · Chojniczanka Chojnice 3-2 Znicz Pruszków (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-01-22T12:15:00.000Z · Chojniczanka Chojnice 2-1 Znicz Pruszków (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · Chojniczanka Chojnice 3-2 Znicz Pruszków (Cup)
- 2022-03-13T11:00:00.000Z · Chojniczanka Chojnice 1-0 Znicz Pruszków (II Liga - East)
- 2021-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · Chojniczanka Chojnice 1-2 Znicz Pruszków (II Liga - East)
- 2021-03-17T14:00:00.000Z · Chojniczanka Chojnice 2-0 Znicz Pruszków (II Liga - East)
- 2020-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · Chojniczanka Chojnice 2-0 Znicz Pruszków (II Liga - East)
II Liga - East table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Znicz Pruszków | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 29 |
| 2 | Tychy 71 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 26 |
| 3 | Górnik Łęczna | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | Olimpia Grudziądz | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 22 |
| 5 | Zawisza Bydgoszcz | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Sandecja Nowy Sącz | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Podhale Nowy Targ | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 8 | Stal Stalowa Wola | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 19 |
| 9 | Rekord Bielsko-Biała | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 10 | Hutnik Kraków | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 11 | Chojniczanka Chojnice | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 12 | Avia Świdnik | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 17 |
| 13 | Legia Warszawa II | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 16 |
| 14 | Lechia Zielona Góra | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 15 | Sokół Kleczew | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -11 | 12 |
| 16 | Śląsk Wrocław II | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -6 | 10 |
| 17 | Świt Skolwin | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -16 | 9 |
| 18 | Resovia Rzeszów | 13 | 0 | 6 | 7 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Znicz Pruszków win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.