· Analysis updated 10:08 UTC
Chomutov vs Dukla Praha II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Chomutov and 2.80 for Dukla Praha II, a combined total of 4.95. That distribution gives Dukla Praha II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dukla Praha II win
52.2% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 2.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chomutov home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dukla Praha II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dukla Praha II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 30% / 18% / 52% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Chomutov and 2.80 for Dukla Praha II, a combined 4.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.4%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–26.0%
- 1–35.6%
- 3–24.6%
Recent form
Chomutov
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ostrov · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlovy Vary · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Hvězda Cheb · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Slaný · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Štětí · 2-1 (W)
Dukla Praha II
- 2026-10-24T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Aritma Praha · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Písek · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Praha II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Viktoria Plzeň II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians 1905 II · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dukla Praha II win, at 52.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.