Chomutov vs Karlovy Vary Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.47 expected goals for Chomutov and 1.50 for Karlovy Vary, a combined total of 3.97. That distribution gives Chomutov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Chomutov win

58.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.47 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Chomutov home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Karlovy Vary away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chomutov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 19% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.47 goals for Chomutov and 1.50 for Karlovy Vary, a combined 3.97 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Chomutov win59%

Draw19%

Karlovy Vary win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals76%

Over 3.5 goals56%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

2–18.6%
3–17.1%
1–17.0%
2–26.5%
2–05.8%

Recent form

Chomutov

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ostrov · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-25T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlovy Vary · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Hvězda Cheb · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Slaný · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Štětí · 2-1 (W)

Karlovy Vary

2026-09-12T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Rapid Psáry · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Slavoj Vyšehrad · 3-4 (L)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Velvary · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Újezd Praha 4 · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-15T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Brandýs nad Labem · 3-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

4. liga - Divizie B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sokol Hostouň	10	7	1	2	18	22
2	Chomutov	10	7	1	2	12	22
3	Újezd Praha 4	10	6	2	2	5	20
4	Rapid Psáry	10	6	1	3	12	19
5	Baník Sokolov	10	6	0	4	8	18
6	Meteor Praha	10	5	1	4	2	16
7	Brandýs nad Labem	10	5	0	5	0	15
8	Slaný	10	4	2	4	8	14
9	Tempo Praha	10	4	2	4	2	14
10	Slovan Velvary	10	4	2	4	-5	14
11	Karlovy Vary	10	4	1	5	2	13
12	Štětí	10	3	3	4	-3	12
13	Ostrov	10	3	1	6	-10	10
14	Slavoj Vyšehrad	10	2	1	7	-14	7
15	Hvězda Cheb	10	2	1	7	-19	7
16	Ústí nad Labem II	10	1	3	6	-18	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Chomutov win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.