Chomutov vs Ústí nad Labem II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.97 expected goals for Chomutov and 0.70 for Ústí nad Labem II, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Chomutov the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Chomutov win

82.8% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.97 – 0.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Chomutov home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ústí nad Labem II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chomutov to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 83% / 11% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.97 goals for Chomutov and 0.70 for Ústí nad Labem II, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Chomutov win83%

Draw11%

Ústí nad Labem II win6%

Double chance 1X

94%

Double chance 12

89%

Double chance X2

17%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

2–011.2%
3–011.1%
4–08.3%
2–17.9%
3–17.8%

Recent form

Chomutov

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ostrov · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-25T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Karlovy Vary · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Hvězda Cheb · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Slaný · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Štětí · 2-1 (W)

Ústí nad Labem II

2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Velvary · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slaný · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-26T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Újezd Praha 4 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Štětí · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Brandýs nad Labem · 2-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

4. liga - Divizie B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chomutov	12	9	1	2	15	28
2	Újezd Praha 4	12	7	3	2	6	24
3	Rapid Psáry	12	7	2	3	14	23
4	Sokol Hostouň	11	7	1	3	16	22
5	Slaný	12	5	3	4	12	18
6	Baník Sokolov	12	6	0	6	5	18
7	Brandýs nad Labem	12	6	0	6	1	18
8	Štětí	12	5	3	4	1	18
9	Karlovy Vary	12	5	2	5	3	17
10	Tempo Praha	12	5	2	5	3	17
11	Meteor Praha	11	5	1	5	0	16
12	Slovan Velvary	12	4	2	6	-10	14
13	Hvězda Cheb	12	3	1	8	-14	10
14	Slavoj Vyšehrad	12	3	1	8	-14	10
15	Ostrov	12	3	1	8	-17	10
16	Ústí nad Labem II	12	2	3	7	-21	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Chomutov win, at 82.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.