IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium · Referee S. Bunmeekiart · Analysis updated 08:06 UTC
Chonburi FC vs Muangthong United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.35 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Chonburi FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.2% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chonburi FC home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Muangthong United away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–08.3%
- 1–27.6%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
Chonburi FC
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Buriram United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayong FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Chiangrai United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kanchanaburi · 2-2 (D)
Muangthong United
- 2026-10-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Phrae United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Nakhon Pathom · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Chiangmai United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Satun · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nong Bua Pitchaya · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T11:30:00.000Z · Chonburi FC 0-0 Muangthong United (Thai League 1)
- 2025-12-06T12:00:00.000Z · Chonburi FC 3-2 Muangthong United (Thai League 1)
- 2024-05-18T11:00:00.000Z · Chonburi FC 0-6 Muangthong United (Thai League 1)
- 2023-12-23T11:00:00.000Z · Chonburi FC 2-1 Muangthong United (Thai League 1)
- 2023-02-19T12:00:00.000Z · Chonburi FC 0-1 Muangthong United (Thai League 1)
- 2022-09-17T12:00:00.000Z · Chonburi FC 5-1 Muangthong United (Thai League 1)
- 2022-01-09T11:00:00.000Z · Chonburi FC 1-1 Muangthong United (Thai League 1)
- 2021-09-12T10:30:00.000Z · Chonburi FC 3-3 Muangthong United (Thai League 1)
- 2021-02-11T11:30:00.000Z · Chonburi FC 1-2 Muangthong United (Thai League 1)
- 2020-03-01T12:00:00.000Z · Chonburi FC 0-1 Muangthong United (Thai League 1)
Thai League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | Buriram United | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 3 | Prachuap | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Ratchaburi | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Uthai Thani | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Sisaket United | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | BG Pathum United | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Bangkok United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Rayong FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Ayutthaya FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Sukhothai FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Lamphun Warrior | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 13 | Chiangrai United | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Pattani | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Chonburi FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Rasi Salai United | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.