Longxing Football Stadium · Referee Wei Li, China · Analysis updated 09:46 UTC
Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Dalian Zhixing Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1.14 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 2.36. That distribution gives Chongqing Tongliang Long the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chongqing Tongliang Long home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dalian Zhixing away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chongqing Tongliang Long to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 28% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1.14 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined 2.36 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–110.8%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–18.0%
Recent form
Chongqing Tongliang Long
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Shanghai Shenhua · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Yunnan Yukun · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Henan Jianye · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dalian Zhixing · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-14T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Qingdao Youth Island · 0-0 (D)
Dalian Zhixing
- 2026-09-05T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Qingdao Jonoon · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Shanghai Shenhua · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T11:35:00.000Z · H vs Beijing Guoan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chongqing Tongliang Long · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T11:35:00.000Z · A vs SHANGHAI SIPG · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 52 |
| 2 | Dalian Zhixing | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 49 |
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 21 | 47 |
| 4 | Shandong Luneng | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 44 |
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 42 |
| 6 | Yunnan Yukun | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | -3 | 40 |
| 7 | Qingdao Youth Island | 29 | 8 | 15 | 6 | -6 | 39 |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 37 |
| 9 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 29 | 8 | 12 | 9 | -3 | 36 |
| 10 | Hangzhou Greentown | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | -12 | 32 |
| 12 | Tianjin Teda | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 31 |
| 13 | Shenyang Urban | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 29 |
| 14 | Henan Jianye | 29 | 8 | 10 | 11 | -4 | 28 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 29 | 5 | 12 | 12 | -11 | 22 |
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 29 | 6 | 3 | 20 | -28 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.