Chornomorets Stadium · Referee Andrey Kovalenko, Ukraine · Analysis updated 18:15 UTC
Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.62 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.78 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives FC Kharkiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Kharkiv win
65.4% probability
Expected goals
0.62 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chornomorets home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Kharkiv away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
88%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.1%
- 0–214.4%
- 1–110.0%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–28.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.8%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.08 | 87.2% | 87.6% | 1.14 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.75 | 34.3% | 34.6% | 2.89 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 1.36 | 65.2% | 65.4% | 1.53 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.2% | 22.2% | 4.50 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 7.00 | 12.7% | 12.4% | 8.06 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.5% | 77.8% | 1.29 | -0.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Chornomorets
- 2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Obolon'-Brovar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Livyi Bereh · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kryvbas KR · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vilkhivtsi · 0-1 (L)
FC Kharkiv
- 2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Livyi Bereh · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Chornomorets · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Polessya · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Bukovyna · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2024-05-12T12:30:00.000Z · Chornomorets 3-0 FC Kharkiv (Premier League)
- 2023-11-05T13:00:00.000Z · Chornomorets 1-2 FC Kharkiv (Premier League)
- 2023-03-11T13:00:00.000Z · Chornomorets 1-1 FC Kharkiv (Premier League)
- 2022-08-27T12:00:00.000Z · Chornomorets 0-0 FC Kharkiv (Premier League)
- 2021-12-12T12:00:00.000Z · Chornomorets 2-1 FC Kharkiv (Premier League)
- 2021-08-06T16:30:00.000Z · Chornomorets 2-3 FC Kharkiv (Premier League)
- 2021-05-27T16:00:00.000Z · Chornomorets 1-0 FC Kharkiv (Persha Liga)
- 2020-11-15T14:00:00.000Z · Chornomorets 2-0 FC Kharkiv (Persha Liga)
- 2020-08-03T16:00:00.000Z · Chornomorets 0-0 FC Kharkiv (Persha Liga)
- 2019-10-12T14:00:00.000Z · Chornomorets 0-0 FC Kharkiv (Persha Liga)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polessya | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | FC Kharkiv | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | Zorya Luhansk | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Kolos Kovalivka | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Veres Rivne | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 11 | Livyi Bereh | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Bukovyna | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Obolon'-Brovar | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -11 | 7 |
| 14 | Chornomorets | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Kudrivka | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 5 |
| 16 | Kryvbas KR | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Kharkiv win, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.