Chornomorets Stadium · Referee Dmitriy Panchishin · Analysis updated 12:05 UTC
Chornomorets vs Karpaty Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.58 expected goals for Chornomorets and 2.83 for Karpaty, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Karpaty the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Karpaty win
83.5% probability
Expected goals
0.58 – 2.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chornomorets home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Karpaty away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
17%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
95%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–213.3%
- 0–312.5%
- 0–19.4%
- 0–48.9%
- 1–27.7%
Recent form
Chornomorets
- 2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Obolon'-Brovar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Livyi Bereh · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kryvbas KR · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vilkhivtsi · 0-1 (L)
Karpaty
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dynamo Kyiv · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs KV Mechelen · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Veres Rivne · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolos Kovalivka · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolos Kovalivka · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-03-30T12:30:00.000Z · Chornomorets 0-4 Karpaty (Premier League)
- 2024-09-21T10:00:00.000Z · Chornomorets 0-1 Karpaty (Premier League)
- 2024-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · Chornomorets 0-3 Karpaty (Cup)
- 2019-05-21T14:00:00.000Z · Chornomorets 3-1 Karpaty (Premier League)
- 2019-04-23T15:00:00.000Z · Chornomorets 0-0 Karpaty (Premier League)
- 2018-10-28T12:00:00.000Z · Chornomorets 0-5 Karpaty (Premier League)
- 2018-07-29T14:00:00.000Z · Chornomorets 0-1 Karpaty (Premier League)
- 2018-05-05T14:00:00.000Z · Chornomorets 1-1 Karpaty (Premier League)
- 2018-03-31T11:00:00.000Z · Chornomorets 1-3 Karpaty (Premier League)
- 2018-02-24T12:00:00.000Z · Chornomorets 0-0 Karpaty (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polessya | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | FC Kharkiv | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | Zorya Luhansk | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Kolos Kovalivka | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Veres Rivne | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 11 | Livyi Bereh | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Bukovyna | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Obolon'-Brovar | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -11 | 7 |
| 14 | Chornomorets | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Kudrivka | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 5 |
| 16 | Kryvbas KR | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Karpaty win, at 83.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 84% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.