Stadion Chornomorets · Referee Oleksandr Solovyan, Ukraine · Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Chornomorets vs Kryvbas KR Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Chornomorets and 2.18 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Kryvbas KR the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kryvbas KR win
64.1% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 2.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chornomorets home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kryvbas KR away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kryvbas KR to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 16% / 20% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Chornomorets and 2.18 for Kryvbas KR, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–19.1%
- 0–37.2%
Recent form
Chornomorets
- 2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Obolon'-Brovar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Livyi Bereh · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kryvbas KR · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vilkhivtsi · 0-1 (L)
Kryvbas KR
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Polessya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Olimpiya Savyntsi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolos Kovalivka · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Chornomorets · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 21 |
| 2 | Polessya | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Dynamo Kyiv | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | FC Kharkiv | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | Zorya Luhansk | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 8 | Veres Rivne | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 9 | Kolos Kovalivka | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Bukovyna | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Livyi Bereh | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Chornomorets | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Obolon'-Brovar | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -10 | 4 |
| 16 | Kudrivka | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kryvbas KR win, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.