· Analysis updated 23:26 UTC
Chornomorets vs Nyva Vinnytsya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.30 for Nyva Vinnytsya, a combined total of 2.36. That distribution gives Nyva Vinnytsya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chornomorets home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nyva Vinnytsya away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nyva Vinnytsya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 31% / 28% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Chornomorets and 1.30 for Nyva Vinnytsya, a combined 2.36 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 0–112.2%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–09.4%
- 1–28.4%
Recent form
Chornomorets
- 2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Obolon'-Brovar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Livyi Bereh · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kryvbas KR · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vilkhivtsi · 0-1 (L)
Nyva Vinnytsya
- 2026-10-03T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Skala 1911 Stryi · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Dnister Zalishchyky · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinaz Vyshhorod · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Kyiv · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Nyva Ternopil II · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.