Stadion Chornomorets · Referee Andrey Kovalenko, Ukraine · Analysis updated 21:42 UTC
Chornomorets vs Polessya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.74 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.92 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Polessya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Polessya win
65.3% probability
Expected goals
0.74 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chornomorets home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Polessya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 14% / 21% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.74 goals for Chornomorets and 1.92 for Polessya, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 45%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.5%
- 0–212.9%
- 1–19.9%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–38.3%
Recent form
Chornomorets
- 2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Obolon'-Brovar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Livyi Bereh · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kryvbas KR · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vilkhivtsi · 0-1 (L)
Polessya
- 2026-10-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Obolon'-Brovar · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Dynamo Kyiv · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bukovyna · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Kharkiv · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Kryvbas KR · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polessya | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 25 |
| 3 | FC Kharkiv | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 4 | Dynamo Kyiv | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Karpaty | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | Zorya Luhansk | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Kolos Kovalivka | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 10 | Veres Rivne | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 11 | Livyi Bereh | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Bukovyna | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 | Obolon'-Brovar | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -11 | 7 |
| 14 | Chornomorets | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Kudrivka | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 5 |
| 16 | Kryvbas KR | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Polessya win, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.