· Analysis updated 05:42 UTC
Chotebor vs Havlíčkův Brod Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Chotebor and 1.67 for Havlíčkův Brod, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Havlíčkův Brod the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Havlíčkův Brod win
51.0% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Chotebor home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Havlíčkův Brod away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Havlíčkův Brod to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 25% / 24% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Chotebor and 1.67 for Havlíčkův Brod, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–28.9%
- 1–06.9%
Recent form
Chotebor
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Humpolec · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Znojmo · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Velká Bíteš · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Žďár nad Sázavou · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FS Třebíč · 0-2 (L)
Havlíčkův Brod
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chotebor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Žďár nad Sázavou · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FS Třebíč · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Brno · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bystrc Kníničky · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
4. liga - Divizie D table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kuřim | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 34 | 25 |
| 2 | Sparta Brno | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Tatran Bohunice | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 4 | Velká Bíteš | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 24 |
| 5 | FS Třebíč | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 21 |
| 6 | Sokol Tasovice | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 20 |
| 7 | Havlíčkův Brod | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 20 |
| 8 | Znojmo | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 18 |
| 9 | Pelhřimov | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bystrc Kníničky | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Žďár nad Sázavou | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 12 |
| 12 | Ždírec nad Doubravou | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 13 | Chotebor | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -11 | 11 |
| 14 | Velké Meziříčí | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -14 | 11 |
| 15 | Humpolec | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 10 |
| 16 | Bedrichov | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -41 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Havlíčkův Brod win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.