Czech-Republic · 4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 714:00

14:00 UTC

Saturday, 12 September 2026

· Analysis updated 03:49 UTC

Chotebor vs Velká Bíteš Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for Chotebor and 1.95 for Velká Bíteš, a combined total of 3.71. That distribution gives Velká Bíteš the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.

Model pick

Velká Bíteš or Draw

64.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.77 – 1.95

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Chotebor win36%
Draw22%
Velká Bíteš win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%
Over 2.5 goals72%
Over 3.5 goals51%
Both teams to score71%

Correct score

  • 1–18.4%
  • 1–28.2%
  • 2–17.4%
  • 2–27.2%
  • 1–35.3%

Why the model likes this

  • Chotebor home form

    9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Velká Bíteš away threat

    Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Velká Bíteš to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 36% / 22% / 43% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.77 goals for Chotebor and 1.95 for Velká Bíteš, a combined 3.71 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Chotebor

  • 2026-08-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vsetín · 1-6 (L)
  • 2026-08-08T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Kuřim · 1-8 (L)
  • 2026-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Velké Meziříčí · 2-0 (W)
  • 2026-06-13T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Brno · 1-2 (L)
  • 2026-06-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pelhřimov · 1-2 (L)

Velká Bíteš

  • 2026-08-15T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FS Třebíč · 1-0 (W)
  • 2026-08-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Humpolec · 2-0 (W)
  • 2026-08-09T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Tatran Bohunice · 0-4 (L)
  • 2026-07-25T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Blansko · 1-1 (D)
  • 2026-06-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Humpolec · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

4. liga - Divizie D table

Full league page →
#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Tatran Bohunice211044
2Znojmo211014
3Kuřim210163
4Sokol Tasovice110023
5Žďár nad Sázavou110013
6Pelhřimov110013
7FS Třebíč210103
8Velká Bíteš2101-33
9Humpolec101001
10Velké Meziříčí101001
11Bedrichov101001
12Ždírec nad Doubravou2011-21
13Bystrc Kníničky1001-10
14Sparta Brno1001-10
15Havlíčkův Brod1001-10
16Chotebor1001-70

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.