Chrobry Głogów vs Ruch Chorzów Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Chrobry Głogów and 1.00 for Ruch Chorzów, a combined total of 2.16. That distribution gives Chrobry Głogów the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.16 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Chrobry Głogów home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ruch Chorzów away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chrobry Głogów to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 29% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Chrobry Głogów and 1.00 for Ruch Chorzów, a combined 2.16 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Chrobry Głogów win39%

Draw29%

Ruch Chorzów win32%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–113.4%
1–013.3%
0–111.6%
0–011.5%
2–17.7%

Recent form

Chrobry Głogów

2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Warszawa · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Pogoń Siedlce · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Miedz Legnica · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Miedz Legnica · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Ruch Chorzów · 2-0 (W)

Ruch Chorzów

2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs ŁKS Łódź · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Lechia Gdansk · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Bytom · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Podbeskidzie · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Unia Skierniewice · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

I Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	10	6	3	1	11	21
2	Polonia Warszawa	10	5	2	3	4	17
3	Nieciecza	10	5	2	3	2	17
4	Warta Poznań	10	5	0	5	3	15
5	ŁKS Łódź	10	4	3	3	2	15
6	Ruch Chorzów	10	4	3	3	0	15
7	Miedz Legnica	9	4	2	3	5	14
8	Stal Rzeszów	9	4	2	3	-5	14
9	Lechia Gdansk	9	4	1	4	2	13
10	Pogoń Siedlce	9	3	3	3	1	12
11	Chrobry Głogów	10	3	3	4	-1	12
12	Polonia Bytom	10	2	6	2	-2	12
13	Stal Mielec	10	3	3	4	-8	12
14	Podbeskidzie	10	1	8	1	-1	11
15	Arka Gdynia	10	3	2	5	-1	11
16	Unia Skierniewice	10	3	2	5	-5	11
17	Odra Opole	9	2	3	4	-2	9
18	Puszcza Niepołomice	9	2	0	7	-5	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.