Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega · Referee Roberto Perez Gutierrez, Peru · Analysis updated 14:55 UTC
Cienciano vs Universitario Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Cienciano and 1.40 for Universitario, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Universitario the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cienciano home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Universitario away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–18.9%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.2%
Recent form
Cienciano
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV Moquegua · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs ADT · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Torque · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Torque · 2-0 (W)
Universitario
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs FBC Melgar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Garcilaso · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Lima · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Comerciantes Unidos · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T20:30:00.000Z · A vs UTC Cajamarca · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-02T23:30:00.000Z · Cienciano 2-0 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2026-02-14T01:30:00.000Z · Cienciano 1-2 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2025-07-26T23:30:00.000Z · Cienciano 1-1 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2025-02-16T00:30:00.000Z · Cienciano 2-3 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2024-10-27T23:00:00.000Z · Cienciano 1-3 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2024-05-21T01:00:00.000Z · Cienciano 0-0 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2023-06-23T00:00:00.000Z · Cienciano 1-1 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2023-03-25T01:30:00.000Z · Cienciano 0-3 Universitario (Primera División)
- 2023-03-10T02:00:00.000Z · Cienciano 0-2 Universitario (CONMEBOL Sudamericana)
- 2022-08-07T20:30:00.000Z · Cienciano 1-0 Universitario (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.