Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega · Referee Augusto Alfredo Menendez Laos · Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Cienciano and 1.60 for UTC Cajamarca, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Cienciano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cienciano win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cienciano home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
UTC Cajamarca away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.6%
- 1–17.7%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–16.5%
- 1–26.1%
Recent form
Cienciano
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs UCV Moquegua · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T20:00:00.000Z · A vs ADT · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Torque · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Torque · 2-0 (W)
UTC Cajamarca
- 2026-10-18T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Cienciano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Cristal · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sport Huancayo · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Juan Pablo II College · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T20:15:00.000Z · A vs Alianza Atletico · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · Cienciano 2-2 UTC Cajamarca (Primera División)
- 2025-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · Cienciano 2-0 UTC Cajamarca (Primera División)
- 2025-05-24T23:00:00.000Z · Cienciano 6-1 UTC Cajamarca (Primera División)
- 2024-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · Cienciano 2-1 UTC Cajamarca (Primera División)
- 2024-04-07T00:30:00.000Z · Cienciano 1-1 UTC Cajamarca (Primera División)
- 2023-07-08T20:30:00.000Z · Cienciano 2-2 UTC Cajamarca (Primera División)
- 2023-02-04T20:30:00.000Z · Cienciano 0-3 UTC Cajamarca (Primera División)
- 2022-10-07T20:30:00.000Z · Cienciano 1-2 UTC Cajamarca (Primera División)
- 2022-05-21T20:30:00.000Z · Cienciano 3-2 UTC Cajamarca (Primera División)
- 2021-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · Cienciano 2-2 UTC Cajamarca (Primera División)
Primera División table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cienciano win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.