· Analysis updated 02:53 UTC
Ciervos vs Dragones de Oaxaca Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Ciervos and 3.54 for Dragones de Oaxaca, a combined total of 4.62. That distribution gives Dragones de Oaxaca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dragones de Oaxaca win
82.2% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 3.54
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ciervos home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dragones de Oaxaca away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dragones de Oaxaca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 7% / 10% / 82% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Ciervos and 3.54 for Dragones de Oaxaca, a combined 4.62 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
18%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
93%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–37.9%
- 0–37.3%
- 1–47.0%
- 1–26.7%
- 0–46.4%
Recent form
Ciervos
- 2026-10-24T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Acatlan · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-10-17T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Cañoneros Marina · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Acambaro · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Halcones Negros · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Refineros · 3-3 (D)
Dragones de Oaxaca
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Cañoneros Marina · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Acambaro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Halcones Negros · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Ciervos · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-28T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Poza Rica · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T21:30:00.000Z · Ciervos 0-2 Dragones de Oaxaca (Liga Premier Serie A)
Liga Premier Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Tribu de Cd. Juarez | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 1 | Dragones de Oaxaca | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 2 | Mineros de Fresnillo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Artesanos Metepec | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Acatlan | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Acambaro | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Vaqueros Reynosa | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Correcaminos UAT II | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Halcones Negros | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Santiago | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Guerreros del Pacifico | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 | Guerreros | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 7 | Calor de San Pedro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Saltillo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | Real Refineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Real Apodaca | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 9 | Ciervos | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
| 10 | Héroes de Zaci | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 2 |
| 10 | Cañoneros Marina | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dragones de Oaxaca win, at 82.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.