· Analysis updated 04:55 UTC
Ciervos vs Halcones Negros Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.14 expected goals for Ciervos and 2.31 for Halcones Negros, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Halcones Negros the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Halcones Negros win
63.5% probability
Expected goals
1.14 – 2.31
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ciervos home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Halcones Negros away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Halcones Negros to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 18% / 19% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.14 goals for Ciervos and 2.31 for Halcones Negros, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.7%
- 0–28.5%
- 1–18.4%
- 1–37.4%
- 0–17.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.62 (model 38.8% vs market 34.8%, edge +4.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.62 | 34.8% | 38.8% | 2.58 | +4.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.70 | 35.0% | 36.5% | 2.74 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.75 | 18.7% | 19.0% | 5.26 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 80.7% | 81.0% | 1.23 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 1.40 | 63.5% | 63.5% | 1.57 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 5.00 | 17.8% | 17.5% | 5.71 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.12 | 84.3% | 82.5% | 1.21 | -1.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.40 | 65.2% | 61.2% | 1.63 | -4.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Ciervos
- 2026-10-24T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Acatlan · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-10-17T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Cañoneros Marina · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Acambaro · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Halcones Negros · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Refineros · 3-3 (D)
Halcones Negros
- 2026-10-25T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Guerreros · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Acambaro · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-10T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Refineros · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Ciervos · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Calor de San Pedro · 7-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Premier Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Tribu de Cd. Juarez | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 1 | Dragones de Oaxaca | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 2 | Mineros de Fresnillo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Artesanos Metepec | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Acatlan | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Acambaro | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Vaqueros Reynosa | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Correcaminos UAT II | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Halcones Negros | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Santiago | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Guerreros del Pacifico | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 | Guerreros | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 7 | Calor de San Pedro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Saltillo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | Real Refineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Real Apodaca | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 9 | Ciervos | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
| 10 | Héroes de Zaci | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 2 |
| 10 | Cañoneros Marina | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Halcones Negros win, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.