Cieza vs Bala Azul Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Cieza and 1.13 for Bala Azul, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Cieza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cieza home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bala Azul away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cieza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 27% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Cieza and 1.13 for Bala Azul, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Cieza win42%

Draw27%

Bala Azul win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.8%
1–011.4%
0–19.5%
2–18.6%
0–08.4%

Recent form

Cieza

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Intercity · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Orihuela · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Baleares · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Castellonense · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Elche II · 1-0 (W)

Bala Azul

2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Pulpileño · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cotillas CD · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcantarilla · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Águilas II · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Mazarrón FC · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-02T16:00:00.000Z · Cieza 3-1 Bala Azul (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
2026-01-04T16:00:00.000Z · Cieza 2-1 Bala Azul (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
2025-03-23T16:00:00.000Z · Cieza 0-1 Bala Azul (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)
2024-11-10T15:30:00.000Z · Cieza 2-1 Bala Azul (Tercera División RFEF - Group 13)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Santomera	7	6	1	0	12	19
2	San Javier	7	4	2	1	2	14
3	Santa Cruz	7	3	3	1	2	12
4	UCAM Murcia II	7	3	2	2	7	11
5	Unión Molinense	6	3	2	1	5	11
6	Águilas II	7	2	5	0	3	11
7	Alcantarilla	7	2	3	2	-1	9
8	Atlético Pulpileño	7	2	2	3	0	8
9	Bala Azul	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	Cartagena LU II	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Los Garres	7	2	2	3	-1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	2	2	2	-1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	2	0	4	-5	6
16	Algar	7	2	0	5	-9	6
17	Bullas Deportivo	6	1	2	3	-2	5
18	Mazarrón FC	7	0	1	6	-9	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.