Cieza vs Cartagena LU II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Cieza and 0.80 for Cartagena LU II, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Cieza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Cieza win

46.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.25 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cieza home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cartagena LU II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cieza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 29% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Cieza and 0.80 for Cartagena LU II, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Cieza win47%

Draw29%

Cartagena LU II win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals15%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

1–016.1%
0–012.9%
1–112.9%
0–110.3%
2–010.1%

Recent form

Cieza

2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Intercity · 3-1 (W)
2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Orihuela · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Baleares · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Castellonense · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Elche II · 1-0 (W)

Cartagena LU II

2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bullas Deportivo · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Algar · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Los Garres · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · H vs UCAM Murcia II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · A vs SFC Minerva · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Santomera	7	6	1	0	12	19
2	San Javier	7	4	2	1	2	14
3	Unión Molinense	7	3	3	1	5	12
4	Santa Cruz	7	3	3	1	2	12
5	UCAM Murcia II	7	3	2	2	7	11
6	Águilas II	7	2	5	0	3	11
7	Olímpico Totana	7	3	2	2	2	11
8	Cotillas CD	7	3	1	3	0	10
9	Bala Azul	7	2	3	2	0	9
10	Alcantarilla	7	2	3	2	-1	9
11	Balsicas Atlético	7	3	0	4	-4	9
12	Atlético Pulpileño	7	2	2	3	0	8
13	Los Garres	7	2	2	3	-1	8
14	Cartagena LU II	7	2	2	3	-2	8
15	SFC Minerva	7	2	2	3	-3	8
16	Algar	7	2	0	5	-9	6
17	Bullas Deportivo	7	1	2	4	-4	5
18	Mazarrón FC	7	0	1	6	-9	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cieza win, at 46.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.