· Analysis updated 13:23 UTC
Cinfães vs Beira-Mar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Cinfães and 1.01 for Beira-Mar, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Cinfães the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cinfães win
50.5% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cinfães home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Beira-Mar away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–011.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–09.4%
- 0–17.6%
Recent form
Cinfães
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrela Calheta · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Leixoes · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Salgueiros · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Beira-Mar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Espinho · 1-0 (W)
Beira-Mar
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ovarense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Os Belenenses · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Castro Daire · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cinfães · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T19:00:00.000Z · H vs União Lamas · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · Cinfães 2-2 Beira-Mar (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
- 2026-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · Cinfães 1-1 Beira-Mar (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
- 2025-12-01T19:00:00.000Z · Cinfães 2-0 Beira-Mar (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
- 2025-02-16T15:00:00.000Z · Cinfães 1-0 Beira-Mar (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
- 2024-10-06T14:00:00.000Z · Cinfães 2-2 Beira-Mar (Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B)
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | Machico | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 3 | Camacha | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Castro Daire | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 |
| 5 | Sanjoanense | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 6 | Salgueiros | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Florgrade | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Cinfães | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | União Lamas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 10 | Estrela Calheta | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Beira-Mar | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Alpendorada | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | Guarda | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
| 14 | Sousense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cinfães win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.