Estadio San Juan · Analysis updated 19:31 UTC
Cirbonero vs Valle Egüés Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Cirbonero and 1.55 for Valle Egüés, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Valle Egüés the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cirbonero home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Valle Egüés away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Valle Egüés to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 34% / 25% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Cirbonero and 1.55 for Valle Egüés, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–17.9%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
Cirbonero
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mutilvera · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Subiza · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Beti Onak · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Txantrea · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Izarra · 0-4 (L)
Valle Egüés
- 2026-10-17T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Huarte · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Doneztebe FT · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Aoiz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cantolagua · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mutilvera · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | Mutilvera | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Beti Kozkor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Subiza | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 5 | Gazte Berriak | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | San Juan | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 7 | Avance Ezcabarte | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Aoiz | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Txantrea | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Doneztebe FT | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Valle Egüés | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Beti Onak | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Cirbonero | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Huarte | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Pamplona | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Cortes | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 5 |
| 17 | Bidezarra | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Cantolagua | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -17 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.