Estadio Guillermo Trama · Analysis updated 08:26 UTC
Circulo Deportivo vs Germinal de Rawson Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Circulo Deportivo and 0.68 for Germinal de Rawson, a combined total of 1.50. That distribution gives Circulo Deportivo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 19% for over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.7% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Circulo Deportivo home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Germinal de Rawson away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
63%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–022.3%
- 1–018.4%
- 0–115.1%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–07.6%
Recent form
Circulo Deportivo
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sol de Mayo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Germinal de Rawson · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martín Mendoza · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sol de Mayo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Santamarina · 1-2 (L)
Germinal de Rawson
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Circulo Deportivo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Guillermo Brown · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Fundacion Amigos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Rincon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martín Mendoza · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · Circulo Deportivo 2-0 Germinal de Rawson (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-06-07T18:00:00.000Z · Circulo Deportivo 0-0 Germinal de Rawson (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-04-04T18:30:00.000Z · Circulo Deportivo 2-1 Germinal de Rawson (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · Circulo Deportivo 0-2 Germinal de Rawson (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-06-01T18:00:00.000Z · Circulo Deportivo 0-1 Germinal de Rawson (Torneo Federal A)
- 2025-03-30T19:00:00.000Z · Circulo Deportivo 5-2 Germinal de Rawson (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-05-19T18:00:00.000Z · Circulo Deportivo 0-0 Germinal de Rawson (Torneo Federal A)
- 2024-03-23T18:00:00.000Z · Circulo Deportivo 0-3 Germinal de Rawson (Torneo Federal A)
- 2023-09-09T17:30:00.000Z · Circulo Deportivo 0-2 Germinal de Rawson (Torneo Federal A)
- 2023-07-08T18:00:00.000Z · Circulo Deportivo 3-3 Germinal de Rawson (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 28% and over 2.5 goals at 19%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.