Estadio Guillermo Trama · Analysis updated 13:44 UTC
Circulo Deportivo vs Guillermo Brown Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Circulo Deportivo and 0.70 for Guillermo Brown, a combined total of 1.93. That distribution gives Circulo Deportivo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Circulo Deportivo win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Circulo Deportivo home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Guillermo Brown away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Circulo Deportivo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 30% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Circulo Deportivo and 0.70 for Guillermo Brown, a combined 1.93 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.9%
- 0–014.6%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–010.9%
- 0–110.2%
Recent form
Circulo Deportivo
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sol de Mayo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Germinal de Rawson · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martín Mendoza · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sol de Mayo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Santamarina · 1-2 (L)
Guillermo Brown
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Fundacion Amigos · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Germinal de Rawson · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martín Mendoza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sol de Mayo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Santamarina · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Circulo Deportivo win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.