Estadio El Fortin · Analysis updated 10:50 UTC
Circulo Deportivo vs Sol de Mayo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Circulo Deportivo and 0.90 for Sol de Mayo, a combined total of 1.68. That distribution gives Sol de Mayo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.6% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Circulo Deportivo home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sol de Mayo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sol de Mayo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 29% / 34% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for Circulo Deportivo and 0.90 for Sol de Mayo, a combined 1.68 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–018.7%
- 0–116.8%
- 1–014.5%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–27.6%
Recent form
Circulo Deportivo
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sol de Mayo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Germinal de Rawson · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martín Mendoza · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sol de Mayo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Santamarina · 1-2 (L)
Sol de Mayo
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Circulo Deportivo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Costa Brava · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Unida Univ. · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Circulo Deportivo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Guillermo Brown · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.