· Analysis updated 22:36 UTC
Cirencester Town vs Farnham Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Cirencester Town and 1.76 for Farnham Town, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Farnham Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Farnham Town win
45.2% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cirencester Town home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Farnham Town away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Farnham Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 32% / 23% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Cirencester Town and 1.76 for Farnham Town, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.1%
- 2–17.4%
- 0–17.2%
- 2–26.5%
Recent form
Cirencester Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Truro City · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Farnham Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Farnham Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetlands · 3-0 (W)
- 2025-08-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Reading City · 0-2 (L)
Farnham Town
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Truro City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Weston-super-Mare · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cirencester Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cirencester Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Folkestone Invicta · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Farnham Town win, at 45.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.