· Analysis updated 18:11 UTC
Cirencester Town vs Gloucester City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for Cirencester Town and 1.65 for Gloucester City, a combined total of 2.91. That distribution gives Gloucester City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gloucester City win
46.4% probability
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cirencester Town home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gloucester City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 29% / 24% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for Cirencester Town and 1.65 for Gloucester City, a combined 2.91 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–19.0%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–17.2%
Recent form
Cirencester Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Truro City · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Farnham Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Farnham Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fleetlands · 3-0 (W)
- 2025-08-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Reading City · 0-2 (L)
Gloucester City
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Barrow · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barrow · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hanworth Villa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mulbarton Wanderers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Plymouth Parkway · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gloucester City win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.