Stadio Comunale Vito Curlo · Analysis updated 16:10 UTC
Città di Fasano vs Manfredonia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Città di Fasano and 1.35 for Manfredonia, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Manfredonia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.6% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Città di Fasano home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Manfredonia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Manfredonia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 36% / 26% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Città di Fasano and 1.35 for Manfredonia, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–19.3%
- 1–09.1%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.2%
Recent form
Città di Fasano
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Paganese · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Paganese · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Normanna · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Martina Franca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Barletta · 2-3 (L)
Manfredonia
- 2026-10-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Virtus Francavilla · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ischia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Turris · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bisceglie · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Forio 2014 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone H table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Francavilla | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Martina Franca | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | Turris | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Brindisi | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Bisceglie | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Gravina | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Manfredonia | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Nocerina | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Fidelis Andria | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Gladiator | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Real Normanna | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | USD Palmese | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Ebolitana | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | Francavilla | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Melfi | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Real Forio 2014 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Ischia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Nardò | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.